Expert: economic sanctions in action – Russia is already on the path to degradation
Giant queues at exchanges and shops, the devaluation of the ruble – just the beginning of the degradation of Russia’s economy, which may become irreparable.
Ukraine , Ukrainegate , 10 , March , 2022 | Economy
The fall of the Russian ruble is catastrophic. The national currency of the aggressor country depreciates daily. Despite all attempts to somehow slow down this process, even the official rate of the Central Bank of Russia is more than 116 rubles for 1 dollar.
Quote
“But the official and real exchange rate in commercial banks is a fundamentally different situation. In addition, the delta in the rate of sale of cash currency is impressive. 8 rubles (BDB Bank) and even up to 244.3 rubles (Otkrytie Bank), ”Garbaruk explained.
He recalled that the Russians were trying in a panic to save their savings.
“In order to somehow save their savings, the Russians rushed to the shops in a herd instinct to buy everything they could. For example, photos of giant queues from stores of the IKEA network, which also leaves the Russian market, have already flown around the Internet.
And those who do not have the funds for expensive purchases, rushed to apply for loans – in the hope that when the ruble finally depreciates and the salary will be paid in bills of one million rubles each, they will be able to close the loan in a short time. It should be noted that the hope that they will succeed is weak, and the logic, to put it mildly, is primitive, “said the expert.
Garbaruk noted that given the number of foreign companies that have left the Russian market or have already announced the termination of their activities in it, the number of unemployed in the near future will be catastrophic.
“This means that there will be no salaries or taxes in the form of contributions to the Russian budget.
The only thing that will happen is the queues for unemployment benefits, which, if there are any, are absolutely meager, “the expert said.
He adds that, given the fact that foreign companies are terminating contracts with Russian companies for the purchase of raw materials – from oil to scaffolding, the number of Russians thrown out into the street will be unpredictable.
“Even today, despite the harshest censorship of the Russian media, there are reports of wage arrears and protests at enterprises in Russia. What will happen next is even harder to imagine – so close to the hungry unemployed riots in the near future “And if that happens, today’s protest movements of the liberal opposition will seem like a light breath of wind against a nine-point storm,” Garbaruk said.
The expert believes that Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine has become a trigger, a trigger for the rapid impoverishment of most of Russia’s population and the possibility of irreparable degradation of its economy, which may take several decades to recover.
The well-known phrase: “latem schi khlebat” has the opportunity to become for ordinary Russians not just a literary phraseology, but quite a possible reality of their daily lives, when utter poverty reigns in their homes.
And if they continue to sit passively in front of their zombie TVs, afraid of watching their fellow citizens who have joined the anti-war protests packed into paddy wagons instead of beating them up with the police, their country will collapse. And this collapse will start with their wallets, due to the catastrophic destruction of the economy, and with their emptied refrigerators, “Garabaruk said.
He is convinced that the largest sanctions in history have already driven the Russian economy into a corner.
“Of course, all this affects the situation in the stock markets, so strategists Morgan Stanley and Citigroup Inc. are already warning their customers that the biggest risks may be within the next 6-8 weeks.
Accordingly, one and a half to two months – and Russia may face the worst collapse of its economy, which will be incomparably tougher than the 1998 default.
By starting the war, Russia launched a mechanism of its own destruction, “said the expert.
In order to suspend it, the President of the Russian Federation must immediately order a ceasefire and the withdrawal of troops.
“But, perhaps, if he decides to” give “something, it is a master class:” How to destroy the economy of his own country and the future of his people in the shortest possible time, “so that this case is included in textbooks around the world,” Garbaruk said.
Source: Ukrgate
