According to Western intelligence officials, insane dictator Vladimir Putin could use the date of May 9 to announce mass mobilization in Russia.
KYIV.UkraineGate , 4 , May , 2022 | Political News.
It is inexpedient to talk about mobilization today
“Mobilization is not just announced and gathered people, put them in uniform and sent to fight,” – said the expert.
He drew attention to an important concept – the basis of mobilization deployment – the relevant resource base on which such deployment is carried out.
Mobilization, according to the expert, should ensure the acceptance of mobilization resources (people), their location, distribution to military units and provision at this stage. It includes, inter alia, transportation, food, accommodation, dressing, selection and distribution of mobilization resources.
“That is, it all has one component that is important – money and resources. And here the question arises: “Does Russia today have such a mobilization base for deployment, which will provide them with the collection, reception and distribution of mobilization resources of about a million or hundreds of thousands of people?” There is great doubt that they have such a base, because it must be a painstaking work that is carried out over a long period of time. And knowing how it is organized in general, I can imagine that they will have very, very big problems with this, ”says Grabsky.
So, for example, the conscript from conditional Irkutsk needs to be transferred to conditional Bugulma. We are talking about considerable distances. Throughout this, the conditional conscript must be fed, provided, and so on.
“This process is so costly that there are doubts about whether Russia will be able to carry out such a process at the state level today. Plus, based on the proportionality of the borders of Russia and Ukraine, it is impractical to talk about such mobilization today, ”said the expert.
You can’t declare war on the whole world
There was talk of recent reports from Western politicians and the media, including British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace, who recently said that one of Putin’s arguments for organizing a mass conscription would be to declare a new war on “Nazis” around the world.
“They can declare war on Nazism. But there is such a thing as a legal-diplomatic document. A declaration of war may be made against any subject of international law. It is impossible to declare war on the whole world, including Israel, as the main generator of Nazi ideas (after today). It is impossible. Therefore, it will be very, very difficult to speak from the point of view of common sense, not even common sense, but ordinary materialism. Moreover, to declare war and not to attack anyone – in three months the whole system will collapse, ”the expert comments on such ideas.
Moreover, in his opinion, Russia is not able to gather some of the necessary potential. So, if we assume that 1 million people were mobilized in Russia – 10% of the total mobilization capacity of the Russian state, then even this million must be kept somewhere, provided with something. And this million is “cut out” from the economic system of the state, it can not be kept in barracks just for 3-5 months.
“Even on our borders, they failed to gather enough forces before the aggression began to comply with the laws of operational art. They gathered a maximum of 190,000, knowing that the Ukrainian army numbered 250,000. That is, from the very beginning they began to violate all norms, rules and laws of operational art and combat operations. They were doomed from the beginning. Therefore, to collect this million or two million – well, it can not be so, “- said the source .
On the other hand, in his opinion, Russia can continue to involve people in the so-called contract service, but to declare mobilization is “nonsense, it does not make sense, because mobilization is announced after the declaration of war.”
Russian society is not ready to go to war with Ukraine
“If they declare war on us, then we need to understand the proportionality of such mobilization. This mobilization may be partial, but it will be very difficult to declare war on Ukraine when they have driven themselves into a dead end. Their society is not ready. They suffered such losses that their society is not ready to fight, they did not prepare their society for war, ”Grabsky said.
He noted that Joseph Stalin had been preparing for war for 10 years. According to the expert, as of September 1, 1939, the Red Army was larger in number than all the armies of all Europe combined. But this was the result of the colossal strain of all the human, economic, political, and natural resources of the entire Soviet Union — all that Russia does not even have near.
The expert also reminded that during the administration of the Ministry of Defense Anatoly Serdyukov (2007-2012) the army was reduced by one million people: from 2.3 to 1.35 million. Accordingly, the mobilization deployment base was also reduced.
“This (mobilization – ed.) Should not be feared, because they can not do it. When they are removing equipment now, they are removing 10, 15, 20 tanks, armored personnel carriers, infantry fighting vehicles, and they are driving, driving, driving, because we are burning them, burning them, burning them. All they can do now is somehow reduce the escalation rate, somehow beg for a truce, calm down for a while, realize their mistakes, and then strike, even with nuclear weapons, to destroy Ukraine as such. But they don’t need it for another reason, “Grabsky said.
This reason, he said, is the celebration of the 100th anniversary of the establishment of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics on December 30, 2022. For this reason, according to the interlocutor, the Kremlin mentioned Moldova, which is why they threaten Poland and shout about the Baltic countries.
“I communicate with my friends in the Baltics, they are also worried and gritting their teeth give us everything and say:” Guys, the only hope for you. If you fall, nothing will hold you back, this horde will advance ”… The tank column passes 30 km a day in conditions of chaotic resistance of the enemy. In 2-3 days they will reach the shores of the Baltic Sea and announce the restoration of the Soviet Union (if they are not stopped in Ukraine – ed.). That is why it is inappropriate to talk about the use of nuclear weapons on a military scale now, ”he said.
Source: Ukrgate