KYIV.UkraineGate , 13 , June , 2022 | Political News.
The probability of Belarus entering the war is 50/50. After all, so-called combat readiness classes can only be a demonstration for Putin and a real preparation for war.
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“It would be very interesting for Putin if Lukashenko started a war and an attack on Zhytomyr and Volyn to cut off supplies of Western weapons from Poland. However, Lukashenko understands that his army is incompetent and lacks such capabilities and combat experience. He is trying in every way to delay the decision to go to war. It could be a show for Putin, or it could be a real preparation for an invasion, 50/50. However, entering the war could end very badly for him, because Europe will not have a ceremony. This is not Putin, who has nuclear weapons, but only Belarus. There may be various options, including direct military assistance to us from Poland or NATO in general, “said the expert.
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As for the “people’s militia” that is currently being actively formed in Belarus, Zhirokhov believes that in this way Lukashenko is trying to replenish the mobilization reserve.
“He also has quite adequate, from a military point of view, steps, such as the formation of an operational command. The People’s Militia is such a reserve to replenish the army in the event of war. Because Lukashenko recently stated that he wants to strengthen the army by 20,000 people, and this “people’s militia” will be a kind of mobilization reserve, “the expert said.
In addition, on the territory of the Republic of Belarus began the active formation of units of the “people’s militia”. Units of the armed forces of this state continue to cover areas of the Belarusian-Ukrainian border in Brest and Gomel regions.
Source: Ukrgate
