KYIV. UkraineGate . 27 . September . 2022 | Ukraine News.
The victory of the center-right parties in the Italian elections will not significantly affect the state’s position regarding the war in Ukraine. However, there are risks that Eurosceptic sentiments will intensify, which could affect unity in the European Union itself.
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“These elections now draw attention to the fact that Russia’s military aggression against Ukraine is a challenge for all states and institutions. After all, the war continues in various formats and against Europe, it is both an energy war and an economic one, because Europe is forced to get rid of cooperation with Russia. And Italy is the third economy of the EU and a country that has traditionally had close ties with Russia for many years not only in the field of economy, but also in the field of cooperation between political forces, information activity and the representation of Russian politicians and propagandists in the Italian mass media. And of course, after Mario Draghi’s government clearly formulated its position in relation to Russia, sometimes more clearly than the German and French leaders, attention is now focused on Italy. Will reverse processes take place there, or will Italy maintain the line followed by ex-Prime Minister Mario Draghi,” Yakhno said.
According to opinion polls, the future coalition and government will be the most right-wing since Mussolini. After all, the far-right camp gains more than 40%, while the left – about 26%, which is a significant difference. What will be the composition of the coalition also attracts attention.
“There are three parties there. One party is the “Brothers of Italy”. Georgia Maloney, after the full-scale invasion, has realigned her position, although previously she was quite skeptical and sometimes controversial in her statements. She has now said she will continue Mario Draghi’s course and support everything related to defence, sanctions and NATO policy. However, the question arises whether this course will really be continued. There are two other parties that also verbally condemn the Russian invasion, but their position is sometimes ambiguous. For example, on the eve of the elections, Silvio Berlusconi, whose party “Forward, Italy” also passed, albeit with the smallest number, said that Putin did not want war, he was pushed by the main goal of the invasion – simply to overthrow the government in Ukraine. Berlusconi does not understand why the army “spread out” all over Ukraine, instead of concentrating near Kyiv. The second party is the “League” of Matteo Salvini, who is also known for his pro-Putin sentiments and at one time wore a T-shirt with the image of Vladimir Putin. In this sense, there are concerns about where the coalition will go,” Yakhno said.
However, the political scientist believes that there will be no radical revision of the position regarding Ukraine. After all, the energy war and nuclear blackmail concern Italy as well. Even the right-wing radical party cannot come out and declare that it supports Russia at the moment. But, as Yakhno notes, it can affect Eurosceptic sentiments and unity in the European Union itself.
“Ultra-right radical parties are traditionally Eurosceptic. They advocate reducing the role of Brussels, strengthening nationalist manifestations and weakening the level of integration into European institutions. Because of this, there may be certain initiatives that will strengthen Eurosceptic sentiments. And this is also important at the moment, because Europe needs unity and is in the process of revising a number of spheres, including defense, energy, and migration. And the countries with the largest economies among the EU countries, which are Germany, France and Italy, traditionally set the tone and, to a certain extent, influence decision-making at the EU level in general,” the political scientist noted.
Italy under Mario Draghi has only begun to rebuild its foreign policy position. At the level of the parliament of the previous convocation, investigations were initiated into information policy and why Russian propagandists had such access to the Italian media, gave many interviews, even after the beginning of the Russian invasion. Because of this, the attention of the world is focused on whether this restructuring will be completed or will end in the initial stage.
“There is one more risk that can be beneficial to Russia – contradictions within the coalition itself and its instability. Even if Georgia Maloney will support Mario Draghi’s course to a certain extent, there are two other subjects who can behave differently and in case of contradictions leave the coalition. Then the coalition will fall apart and there may be early elections again. For a certain time, this can pull Italy out of an external position and immerse it in internal processes. This is beneficial to Putin, because any processes that lock the country exclusively in its own problems exclude it from a proactive position abroad. For Ukraine, there is no direct threat that the new government will recognize aggression or become sharply pro-Putin. But the fact that the dynamics of support may decrease due to immersion in internal processes is such a risk,” the political scientist believes.
Source : Ukrgate
