KYIV. UkraineGate . 28 . September . 2022 | Society.
Regardless of whether the transfer of Iranian drones to Russia was directly with the participation of the Iranian authorities or with the help of third countries or private companies, the West will still respond. It can be economic sanctions, and support for protest sentiments, and even the overthrow of the existing Iranian regime.
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“Now we see that there are drones that are identified as Iranian-made drones. Where exactly these devices were manufactured: in Iran, or on the territory of some other country – is still unclear. The second question that arises is who transmitted them? Are these drones, the production of which took place on the territory of a third country, or a private company purchased them for transfer to Russia. It is also possible that the drones were manufactured on the territory of Russia itself, and then the question of technology transfer arises. Therefore, I think that now the special services are actively studying this,” said Volya.
He believes that regardless of whether it was a direct transfer of the drones from the Iranian authorities or they got to Russia in other ways, the United States, Europe and Israel will not leave this fact unanswered.
“In any case, there will be a reaction, because in fact the Iranian authorities are helping Putin in the war against Ukraine. It is still difficult to say what the specific sanctions are. Now there is a protest explosion and an acute internal political crisis in Iran. I think that we can expect various nuances, both support for the opposition and protests, and financial and commercial pressure on the Iranian authorities. Also, I do not rule out that the Israeli and Western special services will act more actively to overthrow the current Iranian leadership, which creates dozens of problems, including the acquisition of nuclear weapons. We can see that Iran is in no hurry to return to the agreement on the nuclear program and is demanding an end to the IAEA investigation. So the drone story has further complicated Iran’s relations with the West. I think the Iranian leadership has miscalculated a lot, when it came to providing direct or indirect assistance to Putin for waging war against Ukraine. With this step, they outdid themselves,” the political scientist believes.
But even economic pressure will already help in destabilizing the ruling regime of Iran. The protests currently taking place in the country are a derivative not only of the current political regime, but also of socio-economic problems that have been brewing since last year. And because of Putin’s war, problems with food were also added, in particular, this is the problem of rising world prices for it. Therefore, financial restrictions from the West will be felt by the Iranian authorities.
“Of course, they can say, like Erdogan, that it was a private company that handed over the drones. Because there was a similar situation with “Bayraktars”, when the Russians accused Erdogan that Turkey was supplying them to Ukraine. Then Erdogan replied that it is not the state, but a private company that sells them to Ukraine. Perhaps the Iranian leaders will try to turn this “trick” by saying that the drones were manufactured on the territory of another country. For example, in Tajikistan, and they have nothing to do with it. However, this is hard to believe. Moreover, there was information that they were delivered directly from Iran to Russia by plane. And this means that the Iranian authorities could prevent the transfer of the drones, even if it happened through a private company. So it will be difficult for Iran to rehabilitate. Unless to repent, to increase the compensation for the downed Ukrainian plane,
Source : Ukrgate
