Kiev. Ukraine. Ukraine Gate – February 16, 2021 – Local News
The visit of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to the United Arab Emirates has been substantively prepared since the end of last year. In December, Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba was in the Emirates. I suspect they started talking about him then.
But I found out about the visit unexpectedly, it was announced just in a couple of days. To be honest, from the very beginning I did not quite understand what its essence was. But since this is the first serious trip of the President of Ukraine to the Middle East (not counting the trip to Israel in January 2020), it would be a sin not to write about it in more detail.
Ukraine’s relations with the countries of the Persian Gulf are not very active. Yes, of course, of all the countries of the Middle East, the Arabian monarchies, perhaps, most often received Ukrainian presidents. In 2003, Leonid Kuchma marathon traveled to Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE in five days, just before the US invasion of Iraq. Viktor Yushchenko visited the Emirates at the end of 2009. Three years later, in 2012, Viktor Yanukovych traveled to Arabia Petro Poroshenko was in the Emirates in 2015, in Saudi Arabia in 2017, and a year later he visited Qatar, right in the midst of its “Arabian crisis”, when the neighbors took the emirate into a total blockade.
This time, Volodymyr Zelensky visits the UAE after the blockade has already ended, and various conciliatory initiatives have begun throughout the region aimed at temporarily stabilizing the Middle East. True, the agenda has not changed much. Like 20 years ago, in the official press releases on behalf of the President, it is said about intentions, promises, expectations, prospects. As in previous times, there is very little specificity and real results.
Why Volodymyr Zelensky decided to go to the Emirates and only to the Emirates right now remains unclear. Of course, the very fact of a trip is good, at least for maintaining political communication at an appropriate level. But it is still unclear what caused the organization of the visit at such a high level. Today, there are no active major projects in the field of energy, infrastructure, defense between the UAE and Ukraine, our relations are not strategic, and Ukraine is not a priority on the international radar of the UAE.
Abu Dhabi is now busy building a new security architecture in the region, in which they want to play a key role. The war in Yemen is coming to an end. Syria is entering the phase of post-conflict settlement. Competition with Turkey and Saudi Arabia is intensifying. The fragile peace in Libya was disrupted by a completely unexpected vote for a new government.
The visit of Vladimir Zelensky to the Emirates was covered only in the local press. There is practically nothing in the regional media, as if there was no trip at all.
On the eve of the visit, information appeared in the media that an airplane registered to the People’s Deputy from the OPSZ Taras Kozak , the very owner of the 112 TV channels, arrived from Minsk to Abu Dhabi . Ukraine ”,“ NewsOne ”and“ ZIK ”, which are included in the orbit of influence of Viktor Medvedchuk.
The State Border Service claims that People’s Deputy Kozak did not travel outside of Ukraine. Who could have been on that plane, whether someone from Belarus could have been brought and whether this is related to Zelensky’s visit to the UAE is unknown. But this version is actively walking the Internet. After all, one story has already happened in Oman, why not repeat it?
Following the visit, the picture looks like this:
The parties reaffirmed their commitment to maintaining political dialogue in various declarations and statements;
The focus of the negotiations was on food and agricultural issues. Ukrainian official sources emphasized the role of Ukraine as a “guarantor” of food security in the UAE and the entire region;
They also discussed issues of mutual trade, investment, scientific and technological cooperation, partnership in the development of artificial intelligence, defense and security;
There was a separate meeting between the President and Prince Khalifa bin Tahnun. He heads the national memorial” dedicated to the fallen warriors of the UAE, erected in 2016;
Ukraine and the UAE signed a number of all sorts of memorandums in various fields for a total of $ 3 billion;
There was a separate visit by Zelensky and the first lady to the Great Mosque named after Muhammad bin Zayed in Abu Dhabi, as well as to the Louvre Abu Dhabi.
Then they were taken to Masdar City – a project of a city with zero emissions of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, a magnet for attracting Western investments for modern mainstream eco-style trends;
Ukroboronprom signed its package of memoranda totaling over $ 1 billion.
The analysis of the results of the visit is ambiguous. On the one hand, if you summarize everything that happened, you get a pretty good picture. For the mass media, what is needed? On the other hand, if you find fault with the wording and terms, then it comes out very weak and disappointing.
For example, all statements, press releases and comments from official authorities refer to “memorandums” that the president and his team signed right and left in Abu Dhabi.
If so, then there was no point in it. A memorandum is not an agreement, but rather an exchange of views on a specific issue. It does not have the same legal and political significance as a full agreement.
Moreover, it is not clear what amounts could be discussed in such memorandums. Figures and amounts are announced when a contract is concluded, its terms and conditions are agreed upon. In this case, we have no information about this.
This means that either we are dealing with ordinary PR and imitation of violent activity, or this is very poor communication from the OP following the visit, or for some reason they decided to hide this information. By the way, the Emirati side also calls it “memorandums” everywhere, and emphasizes that these documents are aimed at “finding promising areas of cooperation.” In other words, according to the UAE, these documents do not bind to anything.
In addition, the central topic of the talks – food security – raises questions. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy stressed several times during his visit that Ukraine is ready to remain the guarantor of food security not only for the UAE but also for other countries in the region (which ones are unknown, well, God is with them).
However, if you look at the food security situation in the Emirates and Ukraine, then we rather need help than the sheikhs of the UAE. At the end of 2020, Ukraine ranks 76 out of 113 in the Global Food Security Rating, and the UAE is 21st. Over the past year, they have risen by 10 positions at once. For example, Russia, our direct competitor in this area, ranks 42nd (and Belarus 36th). It is difficult to say what guarantees could be discussed in Abu Dhabi.
There is one more thing – who signed all these memorandums? In addition to state institutions, there were representatives of 18 private Ukrainian companies. The OP’s website also reported that they signed dozens of memorandums with the Emirati side with the support of the president and the state.
This is presented as an unequivocal victory for Ukrainian business. This is true, but it concerns only very large business, which is controlled by oligarchic financial groups in our country. Among the companies mentioned as signatories of any memorandum: Interpipe, DTEK, Unit City, East One, Dragon Capital, UMG, Ufuture, TAS Group, BGV, Epicenter, Metinvest.
Well, attention is drawn to the strange phrase of the OP that the president will support Ukrainian business in the UAE. It is not entirely clear what the logic is behind this. What is this business? Why should we support job creation in the UAE and not in Ukraine? Why is it necessary to support the creation of a business in the Emirates, rather than attracting it to Ukraine? What areas are we talking about? Are you referring to the companies mentioned above?
In addition to the memorandums, a document was signed between the State Property Fund and the Emirati investment holding Mubadala. According to the authorities, this will allow Emirati companies to participate in the privatization of state-owned enterprises and the development of promising investment projects.
For reference: the state holding company Mubadala Capital was created in 2017 through the merger of two investment holdings, and in fact, is the Emirati national wealth fund. Initially, the company was created for long-term investments in the oil industry, and today its task is to diversify the UAE economy with an eye to improving the social welfare of the Emirates.
The chairman of the board of directors of Mubadala Capital is the de facto leader of the country, personally Prince Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan. At the end of 2019, the company’s assets amounted to $ 232 billion, and the profit exceeds $ 14 billion.
What the company will do in Ukraine and whether it will be – a big question, to which there is no detailed answer in the OP. Why would the UAE state privatize enterprises on the territory of Ukraine, taking into account the goals of the company, is completely incomprehensible to me?
But even if so, Ukraine must come up with a very good and effective strategy for raising funds for this company for such a business, since money is not wasted. Mubadala announced last year that it is investing $ 1 billion in the purchase of a 1.85% stake in Indian technology and telecommunications corporation Jio Platforms, which owns India’s largest mobile operator and is the country’s fourth-largest mobile operator.
The Emirates regularly invests billions of dollars in companies producing semiconductors and other high-tech products in the countries of Southeast Asia (favorite destination is Singapore). In general, I can only hope that Ukraine has a plan and strategy.
A rather interesting memorandum was signed between Ukraine and the Emirati company INTELMAX. Little is known about her. It is an IP exchange that creates platforms for the exchange of intellectual property products based on the Fantom blockchain technology. They have many private projects about which little is known.
If you believe the statements of the Ukrainian side, INTELMAX will be engaged (again, for some reason, according to a memorandum, not an agreement, but oh well) in the implementation of the blockchain system in the work of state institutions.
I do not really understand what this all means and how promising it is, since I do not understand this technology, and it is difficult for me to evaluate. But it all sounds like a story with a hyperloop and Elon Musk, who is about to come to Ukraine and build a Tesla plant here.
Separately, it is necessary to dwell on the memorandums signed in the defense industry. According to representatives of Ukroboronprom, they signed up to $ 1 billion in Abu Dhabi.
The details of the documents were traditionally not disclosed. What this $ 1 billion is completely unclear.
Is it the purchase of weapons, joint production, Ukraine’s participation in exhibitions, targeted investment, a loan, or a grant? If this is a memorandum, what numbers can we talk about at all? Moreover, according to the information I have, all agreements with the Emirates side in the military-industrial complex were signed at the end of 2020 on New Year’s Eve, and then they were announced “retroactively.” If this is true, it looks like an attempt to justify the president’s trip.
The Emirates is a truly powerful partner in the military-industrial complex. Company EDGE Group is, with which the Ukrainian delegation dealt, is the largest in the Middle East manufacturer of defense products.
The holding was established in 2019 as part of the UAE’s army rearmament and modernization program. It included 25 Emirati companies, and in the first year, they earned $ 5 billion from the sale of their products.
Another company, Tawazun, is also investing in the military-industrial complex. In 2019, for example, they became co-owners of the Russian company VR-Technologies, which produces light helicopters.
In general, the UAE’s strategy in this area is to localize the production of advanced defense products. And here the important question is, what can Ukraine offer them? They will not build factories on our territory, they are interested in attracting technologies, a joint production with technology transfer.
And here we can only hope that we have something like that. Although after the story with the Motor Sich plant, many investors may have additional questions about whether it is worth investing in the remains of strategic enterprises in Ukraine.
Among other things, the Ukrainian delegation also signed a memorandum of understanding in the field of land management, a memorandum on the creation of a certain agrarian hub and a trading company in the agricultural sector, an agreement (hurray) on the mutual recognition of a driver’s license. The First Lady met with the UAE Minister of Culture, discussed joint educational and cultural projects, but there is no news yet.
I must add that I was a little struck by the extremely low level of media attention to Zelensky’s visit. I want to talk separately about this moment. In Ukraine, the president’s trip was not immediately noticed, mainly due to the fact that it was reported the day before. In the Middle East, this event was almost ignored. As I already wrote, the largest TV channels Al-Jazeera, Al-Mayadeen, Al-Arabiya ignored Zelensky’s arrival in Abu Dhabi.
The local press wrote little about this, dryly and only in general phrases, focusing more not on what the President of Ukraine came to them with, but on who met him from the representatives of the royal family.
For example, in one of the largest Emirati newspapers, Gulf Today, there was only one piece of news about Zelensky’s visit – how he was greeted by the ruler of Dubai, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum.
And immediately after that, the second news about Ukraine (for a second, this year) – about how somewhere in Chernigov a man staged murder in order to attract the attention of the police, and she cleared the snow, trying to get to his house and arrest him … By the way, this story was reprinted by the Emirati press from the AFP agency.
Why is that? A combination of factors.
The embassies did not particularly prepare the informational basis for the visit. For the Arabs, Ukraine remains off their agenda. According to Ukraine’s perception, I would divide their audience into three groups.
The first considers Ukraine to be US vassals somewhere in Europe. The second heard about Ukraine within the typical stereotypes about “beautiful women” and “delicious cuisine.” The third one remembers that Ukraine is the former Soviet Union, somewhere near Russia.
We do not have an information policy in this direction, just as there ino coherent, understandable policy in relation to different countries of the Middle East.
Hence the corresponding attention, or rather its absence. It turns out that for the local eco-system, the arrival of Vladimir Zelensky was almost not felt.
And this is a disadvantage for us, because in such a region the information component is half the battle, especially if you have problems with positioning in relations with the locals.
Read also: Ukroboronprom Cooperates with the UAE!
In general, the visit itself is good. Ukraine lacks long-term, regular political contacts with the Middle East. And the Persian Gulf today has entered a phase of rapid development, competing to see who will be the first to fulfill its ambitious Vision 2030 programs.
However, it is bad when a visit is empty when pathos is developed and work is imitated, but meanings, long-term spaces of cooperation, and real ideas for partnership are not created.
The same question was spinning in my head all the time: could it be different? Should anyone blame for the lack of real results? After all, as I wrote, relations between Ukraine and the UAE do not have any serious substantive support.
Ukraine has little to offer the Emirates, especially now, when they bypass us in almost everything. And it looked all the more noticeable against the background of the Emirates satellite, which they were the first among the Arabs to launch into Mars orbit just a few days before the arrival of Vladimir Zelensky.
By and large, the visit itself looked like an excursion. Emirati leaders brag about their accomplishments by introducing modern technology and trends to visiting foreigners from underdeveloped countries.
Indeed, over the past 20 years, the UAE has managed to make a real economic and technological leap that Ukraine never dreamed of. Because of this, I could not make the visit as something serious. I think this is the reason for the low level of attention to Zelensky’s arrival from the local press.
And finally, I pondered the last lines of this article, watching how, not far from the metro station, a long line of angry and hungry people, after work, furiously rushed to the wrecked minibus, trudging to the bus stop, tearing open doors, pushing each other and stuffing themselves into it. ignoring the raging coronavirus just to get home in this snowy weather.
Of the three buses on a long route, one broke down, the second left, and now the last wreck, near death, has just reached its destination. Looking at this sight, I felt sad. The Emirates and Ukraine are two different planets, and we are as far as the moon. Therefore, Zelensky’s visit to Abu Dhabi looked so unusual and empty.
Read also: Zelensky Wants to Create Another Party!
